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ING On NBH Meeting Next Week

HUNGARY
  • ING have noted that with the central bank keeping the market and price stability issues separated, they don't see any reason for the Monetary Council to change its mindset regarding the base rate.
  • While inflation's direction of travel has been favourable, it remains elevated and ING therefore expect the NBH to keep the base rate at 13%, pushing the expected change into the not-too-distant future.
  • In contrast, the decision regarding the effective rate will be exciting. Should markets see renewed weakening in the HUF, ING can imagine the central bankers sitting on their hands and keeping the effective rate unchanged. However, with the forint strengthening since the June inflation data release, ING are instead betting on the continuation of the 100bp rate cut cycle.
  • As a result, ING see the effective rate being lowered to 15%. Meanwhile, they are also expecting to see strong labour market data – much like the rest of the EU – as shortages keep wage growth elevated and deter companies from lay-offs despite the challenging economic environment.
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