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ING on NBP

POLAND
  • In May, NBP Governor Adam Glapiński suggested that monetary tightening is coming to an end, and conditions for rate cuts could arise already in 2023, yet price developments (CPI above 15%YoY in June) and inflationary risks call for another rate hike this month.
  • What's more, the external environment leaves little room for doubts about the need to continue tightening (following CNB, NBH aggressive hikes).
  • Therefore, ING expects the monetary policy council to deliver a 75bp rate hike, however markets may bet on an even more decisive policy move.
  • Anything less than 75bp would lead to Polish złoty weakening.

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