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ING Revise Interest Rate Path, See 25bp Cuts in Oct and Nov, 50 in Dec

HUNGARY
  • ING have revised their forecast for the interest rate path in such a way that they still see the year-end base (and effective) rate at 12%, but they think that the path getting there will be different. Rising volatility and market uncertainty in the coming months (changing monetary policy set-up, EU funds and fiscal policy uncertainties) could lead the NBH to be overly cautious, resulting in only 25-25bp of rate cuts in October – November, they say.
  • After that, they say the expected positive outcome of the EU debate and the possible avoidance of rating downgrades in December set the stage for a series of 50bp rate cuts.
  • What remains unchanged is that at the September rate-setting meeting the effective interest rate and the key interest rate will be merged at 13%.
  • Given the dovish market expectations, ING see room for upward repricing when the market realises that NBH is not going to continue the set pace of rate cuts in previous months. They remain positive on the HUF despite higher volatility and lower EUR/USD.
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