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ING: Rising Lay-Offs To Dampen Labor Data In Coming Months

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • ING provisionally forecast nonfarm payroll growth of circa 200k (cons 200k). They were set to “firm up our forecasts as we go through the week and see what the ISM and NFIB business organisations say about what their members are experiencing” although the 200k estimate still stands in the Bloomberg survey as of today.
  • However looking ahead, “This is despite anecdotal evidence of rising job lay-offs at major employers, which we think will dampen the data in coming months.”
  • “AHE will correct lower after a big jump related to fewer hours worked for salaried professionals in January – relating to bad weather limiting some employees’ ability to get into work.”
  • They see the u/e rate rising a tenth to 3.8% (cons 3.7).
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