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ING View On Vonovia’s Upcoming GBP 12Y Supply

CREDIT SUPPLY
  • On the Vonovia GBP 12y mandate mentioned earlier, we note comments from ING on the issuer.
  • ING had viewed Vonovia as likely coming to market earlier this year but had not necessarily anticipated a turn to the GBP market though they see this as a way of testing the bond market without impacting their EUR curve too much.
  • Vonovia faces significant debt maturation in the coming years, making continued access to the bond market crucial - we see €1.9bn of loans/bonds maturing in 2024 and over €3bn per year from 2025 to 2028.
  • The company has recently been successful in disposals in 2023 and plans further disposals in 2024, alongside raising secured financing for upcoming bond maturities.
  • On RV, ING sees their EUR bonds generally better bid at the long end at around Z+190bp. Using an offer level of around Z+180bp, this translates to Z+~166bp in GBP cross-currency terms. Though given that BBB+ GBP bonds trade around Z+200bp, the deal will likely have to price higher to entice demand.
  • The deal will likely serve as a good indicator of market access both for Vonovia and the wider sector.
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