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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Initial Analyst View Changes Post-Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Tallying up some analyst view changes since payrolls

  • BofA: No longer calls for cuts. Base case for extended hold, risks for next move skewed toward a hike
  • GS: Now sees 2 cuts vs previously 3 cuts this year
  • JPM: Now see next cut in June before final one in Sept
  • Citi: Now sees next cut in May vs Jan previously

Fed Funds futures price a cumulative 21.7bp of cuts for July and 26.1bp for Sept meetings, with 31bp for 2025.

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Tallying up some analyst view changes since payrolls

  • BofA: No longer calls for cuts. Base case for extended hold, risks for next move skewed toward a hike
  • GS: Now sees 2 cuts vs previously 3 cuts this year
  • JPM: Now see next cut in June before final one in Sept
  • Citi: Now sees next cut in May vs Jan previously

Fed Funds futures price a cumulative 21.7bp of cuts for July and 26.1bp for Sept meetings, with 31bp for 2025.

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