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Initial Claims In Line, Continuing Claims Retrace Particularly Swift Increase

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims were exactly as expected in the week to Dec 2, at a seasonally adjusted 200k (cons 220k) after a fractionally upward revised 219k (initial 218k).
  • The four-week average has held at 220-221k for four weeks now, above the low 200s in October but only back to very similar levels to the 2019 average.
  • Continuing claims meanwhile were solidly lower than expected in the week to Nov 25 at a seasonally adjusted 1861k (cons 1910k) after 1925k (initial 1927k), reversing a majority of the particularly sharp 84k increase from the week prior.
  • It could well be some unwinding of the prior week which saw a seasonal adjustment process that looked to have biased SA continuing claims too high. The overall trend of higher continuing claims and the implied reduced labor market churn remains in place.

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