September 05, 2024 13:57 GMT
MNI BRIEF: US Aug Hiring, Pay Data Continues Normalizing -ADP
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MNI (WASHINGTON) - Private U.S. employer hiring slowed for a fifth straight month to a slower-than-usual 99,000 in August, while wage growth has stabilized to a higher level compared to before the pandemic, signs of a normalizing job market, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said Thursday
"The labor market is undoubtedly cooling," she said. "I don't think that there's anything in the ADP numbers, and I suspect what we'll see from the BLS tomorrow that changes the natural inclination of the Fed to be data dependent and moderated in its policy change." That would point to quarter-point interest rate cuts instead of a bigger move, she added. (See: MNI POLICY: Fed Prefers Gradual Rates Easing If Jobs Allow)
Annual pay gains were unchanged at 4.8% for job stayers and 7.3% for job changers, according to ADP's analysis of its data of 10 million employees. Job stayers are still experiencing wage increases but job changers are now seeing negative pay growth, the same pattern that was present before the pandemic, Richardson said. "Wages are not playing a role in any inflation outburst and stabilizing to a higher level than pre-pandemic. That's consistent with inflation being higher than pre-pandemic."
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