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Initial Claims In Line Whilst Continuing Claims Better Than Expected

  • Initial jobless claims were close to expected as they increased to 242k (cons 240k) from 229k (initial 230k), maintaining a recent volatile patch.
  • The four-week average pushed back higher to 239k (+3k) at the ~240k level it’s been holding since mid to late March having pushed higher from nearer 200k at the start of the year.
  • The non-seasonally adjusted data showed a similar story to recent weeks; at the high end of typical levels for non-pandemic years but not wildly so and with no discernible upward trend.
  • Continuing claims offered a stronger takeaway though, surprisingly falling to 1805k (cons 1865k) from a downward revised 1843k (initial 1858k) as they pull back from levels that were the highest since Jul’21.

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