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Initial Claims Inline Although Continuing Pushing Higher

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims were almost fully in line for no change on the week, at a seasonally adjusted 217k (cons 216k) after a slightly upward revised 217k (initial 215k).
  • The four-week average ticked 1k lower to 212k, off the 203-204k seen in mid-Jan but still historically low and below the 218k averaged in 2019.
  • Continuing claims meanwhile increased more than expected to a seasonally adjusted 1906k (1880k) from a downward revised 1898k (initial 1905k) in the week prior. It’s another step back to the recent high of 1925k from mid-Nov.
  • The non-seasonally adjusted data appear to reflect these trends. Initial claims are at the lower end of the historical range and picking up in the latest week to less of an extent than in 2023. However, continuing claims are opening up a wider gap with 2023 and especially 2022 figures for this time of year.

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