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Initial Claims Lower Than Expected As Massachusetts Jump Reverses

US DATA
  • Initial claims were lower than expected in the week to May 13, falling back to 242k (cons 252k) after the surprise jump to (an unrevised) 264k.
  • The NSA figure falls -18.6k to 215.8k back into more typical ranges, with Massachusetts -14k in what looks like a reversal of prior outsized strength (having added +6.3k of the +14k the prior week).
  • We’d suggest at first look that the 242k is a pretty fair look compared to the prior 4-wk average of 239k in week prior to Massachusetts fraud claims coming to light, and continues to imply no further deterioration after some labor market slowing in late Feb/early March.
  • Continuing claims also surprisingly fell to 1799k (cons 1820k) from a downward revised 1807k, the lowest since early March.

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