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Initial Claims: Massachusetts Upward Bias Reduced But Still There

US DATA
  • Earlier, initial jobless claims fell by more than expected in the week to May 13, back to a seasonally adjusted 242k (cons 252k) after the surprise jump to 264k the week prior.
  • We touched upon the elevated level of Massachusetts claims, previously linked to fraudulent activity, and its 14k decline in non-seasonally adjusted terms played a big role behind the -18.6k in the raw total.
  • Comparing with ‘typical’ weeks in the pre-pandemic era, we can see that the Massachusetts level of 21k is still notably elevated, although it has moved closer to levels from a month ago before the recent lurch higher.
  • In comparison, California is the largest US state by population and unsurprisingly also has the highest level of claims, but these are tracking much more in line with pre-pandemic weeks.
  • If more broadly representative, it could mean some scope for modest further declines in the level of seasonally adjusted nationwide initial claims.



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