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Initial Claims Stabilizing But Continuing Claims Pushing Higher

US DATA
  • Initial claims increased by slightly more than expected in the week to Apr 15, i.e. capturing the payrolls reference week, at 245k (cons 240k) after a marginally upward revised 240k (initial 239k).
  • It left the 4-week average unchanged at 240k, continuing to roughly stabilize in recent weeks having been found to have climbed through Feb/Mar after the sizeable seasonal adjustment revisions of a few weeks ago. This level is relatively elevated compared to 2022 readings but remains historically low.
  • The raw, non-seasonally adjusted data (latest 228k) maintain a push towards the top of non-pandemic ‘normal’ readings but haven’t lifted further from there.
  • Continuing claims meanwhile showed more of a notable increase though, rising from 1804k to 1865k (cons 1825k) in the week to Apr 8, the highest since Nov 20221.


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