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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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The fall in initial jobless claims last week (see our note earlier) brought the four-week moving average to 212k - up from the all time low of 170k set in April but still well below levels that are consistent with significant economic weakness.
- A classic recession indicator is when the 4-week moving average moves through the 5-year average: that's signaled 6 of the past 7 recessions (the exception being the 1981-82 double-dip recession when claims didn't come back below the moving average).
- Even excluding the worst 6 months for claims in the pandemic, the 4-week average is well below the 5-year moving average (around 314k). And there has never before been a recession with claims this low.
- With little indication of labor market weakness as yet, a Fed pivot toward more moderate policy is not yet in sight.
5-Yr M.A. excludes 6-month period from beginning of pandemicSource: BLS, NBER,
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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