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Initial Claims Surprise Lower Again, Holding Particularly Low Levels

US DATA
  • Initial claims were lower than expected at a seasonally adjusted 202k (cons 210k) in the week to Jan 6 after a near unrevised 203k (initial 202k).
  • It’s another very low print (the 2019 low was 197k) and leaves the four-week average at 208k for levels last sustainably seen in late 2022/early 2023.
  • Continuing claims were also lower than expected at a seasonally adjusted 1834k (cons 1870k) in the week to Dec 30 after an upward revised 1868k (initial 1855k).
  • They remain elevated compared to the 2019 average of 1699k – see charts.

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