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Initial Claims Tick Higher, But No Clear Signal Of Deterioration

US DATA

Initial jobless claims in the Jun 1 week ticked up 8k to 229k, the highest in 4 weeks and exceeding consensus estimates of 220k (prior was 221k, rev up from 219k). Continuing claims for the preceding week edged 2k higher to 1,792k, non-impactful given a downward 1k revision to prior (to 1,790k).

  • Even with the move higher, the 4-week moving average for initial claims fell 1k to 222k, with the jump to 232k at the start of May dropping out of the calculation. This leaves the average a little above readings between 210-220k earlier in the year.
  • Non-seasonally adjusted initial claims were a touch below past years and in line with general steadiness at this time of year (down 2k to 195k), while NSA continuing claims showing a similar story (up 6k to 1,672k), though both appear to be bottoming out out ahead of what is usually a pickup in mid-summer.
  • With both initial and continuing claims well within recent ranges, there is little here to suggest that there is much movement away from the steadily weakening though reasonably solid labor market signals seen in the past couple of months of claims reports, even as some other employment signals show clearer signs of deterioration.

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