Initial HICP Estimates Look A Bit Low After German/Spanish Prints

We've had 44% of the countries in the Eurozone HICP weighting report so far, and headline looks set to come in at around 5.1-5.2% Y/Y in Thursday's flash print if the French (20% of the basket) and Italian (17%) prints are roughly in line.

• That would be a little above the 5.1% consensus coming into today's German and Spanish (and Belgian and Irish) prints.
• As for core, sell-side analysts' updated forecasts suggest mixed views vs the 5.3% Y/Y initially projected, though we remind that the majority of the HICP basket is yet to report (we also hear from the Netherlands, Austria, Slovenia and Portugal - totaling 12% of the HICP weighting - prior to the Italy/EZ simultaneous release).

Updates from this afternoon include the following - note the mixed core outlooks:

• Goldman: Headline: 5.3% Y/Y; Core 5.3%
• JPMorgan: Headline 5.2% Y/Y; Core 5.1%
• Nomura: Headline 5.2% Y/Y ("nowcast" 5.16%); Core "nowcast" (5.37%) shows upside risks of 5.4-5.5% vs Nomura's 5.3% forecast