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Initial Jobless Claims Healthier Than Expected, Potential Seasonality Factor

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims were notably lower than expected in the week to Sep 2, falling to 216k (cons 233k) after a fractionally upward revised 229k (initial 228k).
  • The four-week average also sees a sizeable drop to 229k (-9k) for its lowest since late July and before that March.
  • It appears there could have been a favorable seasonal adjustment effect, with the NSA data falling 3k to 190k but with the seasonal factors possibly distorted by a sharp increase back in 2017.
  • Ohio is also at play, returning to more typical levels as non-seasonally adjusted claims fell for the third week running from particularly elevated levels.
  • Continuing claims added to the healthier than expected data, falling to 1679k (cons 1719k) from a downward revised 1719k (initial 1725k). It falls back below the 2019 average, tying with mid-July levels having last been lower in January.

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