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Initial Jobless Claims In Line, Continuing Solid Trend Decline

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims were very close to expectations in the week to Jul 29, at a seasonally adjusted 227k (cons 225k) after an unrevised 221k.
  • It sees a further solid decline in the four-week average to 228k (-6k) which has fallen almost 30k from its late June peak.
  • Continuing claims meanwhile were lower than expected at 1700k (cons 1708k), increasing from a downward revised 1679k (initial 1690k) to keep them in line with the 2019 average as a sign of continued labor market tightness.
  • Seasonal adjustment bias remains an area of focus and here initial claims continue to look fair when eyeballing the non-seasonally data although continuing claims remain on the high side for equivalent weeks in non-pandemic years which could indicate a favourable adjustment.

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