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Initial Jobless Claims See Surprise Lurch Higher, With A Notable NSA Increase

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims see a much larger than expected increase to a seasonally adjusted 243k (cons 229k) in the week to Jul 13 – covering a payrolls reference period – after a marginally upward revised 223k (initial 222k).
  • It sees last week’s surprise lower for both initial and continuing claims as an anomaly, the first week both surprised lower for the first time since early May.
  • Latest SA initial claims are joint highs since early June but when it comes to outright levels, we focus on the smoother four-week average. It inched 1k higher to 235k, still close to the recent high of 239k from two weeks prior (highest since late Aug 2023) and holds a notable upward trend from the 210k in April and recent low of 201k in Jan.
  • Note that the 36.8k increase in the NSA figure is unusual for the time of year – see charts.
  • Texas accounted for a large 11.5k (also unusual) but there were multiple other larger contributors including California (+6.9k), Georgia (+2.8k), Missouri (+2.8k) and NY (+2.6k).

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