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Initial Jobless Claims See Surprise Lurch Higher, With A Notable NSA Increase
- Initial jobless claims see a much larger than expected increase to a seasonally adjusted 243k (cons 229k) in the week to Jul 13 – covering a payrolls reference period – after a marginally upward revised 223k (initial 222k).
- It sees last week’s surprise lower for both initial and continuing claims as an anomaly, the first week both surprised lower for the first time since early May.
- Latest SA initial claims are joint highs since early June but when it comes to outright levels, we focus on the smoother four-week average. It inched 1k higher to 235k, still close to the recent high of 239k from two weeks prior (highest since late Aug 2023) and holds a notable upward trend from the 210k in April and recent low of 201k in Jan.
- Note that the 36.8k increase in the NSA figure is unusual for the time of year – see charts.
- Texas accounted for a large 11.5k (also unusual) but there were multiple other larger contributors including California (+6.9k), Georgia (+2.8k), Missouri (+2.8k) and NY (+2.6k).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.