Initial Thoughts On Impact Of (Likely) Democrat Sweep In Georgia

With Georgia's special US Senate election having been called by most outlets for Democrat Raphael Warnock, and the other Democrat challenger Jon Ossoff looking likely to win Georgia's other US Senate seat, attention is shifting to some of the potential implications of these two wins (it is set to be the first time since 2003 that the Democrats will be in possession of both Georgia seats).

• As has been widely noted, the upcoming 50-50 split between Democrats and Republicans in the US Senate will mean that should any vote be tied, the Vice-President - who also serves as President of the Senate - will have the tie-breaking vote. With VP Elect Kamala Harris due to be sworn into office on 20 Jan, this will give the Democrats control of the presidency, the House, and effective control of the Senate.
• While the Senate majority leader is not an official position within the US Constitution, by convention in a 50/50 split the party of the vice-president becomes the majority party. As such, it is likely that current minority leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and current majority leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will exchange positions. This will give the Democrats the opportunity to speak first on the floor and generally direct Senate business.
• The majority party also has the power to appoint the chairs of the powerful committees of the Senate. In 2001 when the US Senate was split 50-50 the Democratic and Republican leaderships formulated a power-sharing agreement that saw some chairs go to each party. However, in the current febrile political climate this bipartisanship seems an unlikely prospect.
• Significant focus is going to turn to the Democratic US Senator from West Virginia Joe Manchin. He is seen as the most centrist/conservative of the Democratic senators. Manchin was one of three Democrats to vote for Trump nominee Neil Gorsuch's appointment to the Supreme Court bench and the only one to vote for Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation. He has also opposed flagship progressive programmes such as Medicaid for All, the Green New Deal, and supported some of Trump's policies on tightening immigration laws. Crucially Manchin has said he opposed both the expansion of the Supreme Court (mooted by some in an attempt to overturn the current 6-3 conservative majority) and the end to the Senate filibuster, which allows the minority party to hold up legislation indefinitely. Given all this, there is a not-insignificant prospect that some of the more progressive/liberal legislation that the Democrats try to pass could be scuppered by Manchin's dissenting vote.