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INR in Focus as Sell-Side Makes Swathe of Upgrades to Growth View

INDIA
  • Some focus on INR moves across sell-side this week, with USD/INR remaining well toward the upper-end of the recent trading range, despite the USD's 3% decline on the month as well as the solid GDP release on Thursday.
  • MUFG write that they're cautious near-term on INR, forecasting the rate at 83.70 in 3 months, seeing FX volatility curtailed by "aggressive" intervention from the RBI in both directions.
  • ING note that the GDP release puts India on track to achieve and probably exceed 7% growth this year, but note that the currency failed to materially benefit.
  • Other sell-side forecast upgrades of note include Barclays, Citi and Nomura, who upgrade their GDP views by 0.4, 0.5 and 0.8ppts respectively, to 6.7%.
  • USD/INR heads into the local close off lows, but still lower on the day. The 50-dma has provided some intraday support at 83.24, and a break below would expose horizontal supports of 83.02-04.
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