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INR Softens Following Inflation Data, Sell-Side Expect CPI to Remain Close to Current Levels

INDIA

USDINR opened higher at the start of Wednesday’s session following yesterday’s inflation data (+5.09% y/y vs. +5.04% expected), reaching a high of 82.91, above the 200-DMA, before ultimately closing at 82.86 and a more moderate 0.1% in the green.

  • The Nifty and Sensex indices underperformed their APAC counterparts, with the former recording an intraday loss of 1.5% - its greatest since mid-January. That index is now within close proximity to the 50-DMA, a level which has not been pierced since November 2023.
  • Following yesterday's CPI print, JP Morgan note that given current trends, they expect CPI to remain close to 5% over the next three months, before softening below 5% in June.
  • Goldman Sachs estimate core inflation to bottom out in Q1-2024 and increase towards 4.0% y/y by mid-2024. Meanwhile, HSBC say the key data of the release was the continued and broad-based decline in core inflation, which they say will likely remain at these levels for the next few months.
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