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Inside Lower Range Pre-Data, SNB, NOK, BOE Policy Anncs's

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are holding weaker at the moment, near the low end of a narrow overnight range in the lead-up to this morning's weekly jobless claims, housing starts and building permits data at 0830ET.
  • Overnight policy reactions: Treasury futures bounced in early London trade after the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25bps to 1.25%, but quickly retraced the move before Norges Bank held rates at 4.50% as expected. Treasuries held the range after the BOE held rates steady at 5.25%.
  • The Sep'24 10Y contract currently trading -5.5 at 110-20 vs. 110-16 low. The recent breach of resistance at 110-21, the Jun 7 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Apr 25, and has paved the way for an extension towards 111-17+, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 109-00+, the Jun 10 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme.
  • Cash yields are running mildly higher: 5s +.0139 at 4.2588%, 10s +.0193 at 4.2420%, 30s +.0210 at 4.3761%, while curves look steeper: 2s10s +1.322 at -48.247, 5s30s +0.530 at 11.553.
  • Projected rate cut pricing is running steady to mildly lower vs. late Wednesday levels (*): July'24 at -10% w/ cumulative at -2.5bp at 5.302%, Sep'24 cumulative -17.8bp (-18.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -27.1bp, Dec'24 -46.8bp (-47.6bp)
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