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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FINANCIALS
- Q4 revenue matched consensus at SEK 5.5bn and in line with Q422 while adj-EBIT 5% ahead of consensus though flat YoY. Q4 earnings of SEK 187mn to give FY loss SEK 188mn.
- Pro forma leverage slightly higher YoY at 4.4x from 4.1x (vs. 3.5x target for 26) with a favourable 0.1x impact from FX. No dividend was proposed for 2024.
- On their asset sale, we note comments from the subsequent call that assets being sold are not recently originated or their highest-quality assets. The CEP gave a non-committal response on whether there exists any scenario where a dividend is paid before achieving the 3.5x leverage target. He noted that the pushed back leverage target into 2026 is “into the next year” and not “by one year”.
- We see the asset sale ultimately as a trade-off between ST liquidity and LT portfolio profits. Analysts seem to think that 2% discount on the sale is adequate with the lower profitability a prudent trade-off for bulletproofing their maturities over the coming two years. We note that Fitch see the disposal as ratings neutral.
- The price response implies otherwise though – their equity sits 5.5% lower since Monday while their curve sold-off with their longest-dated EUR bonds €5.50-€6.50 cheaper WoW (though ST bonds have cheapened by much less).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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