EUROZONE DATA
Eurozone January industrial production was in line with our tracking estimate at 0.8% M/M, though two-tenths above consensus of 0.6%. This makes it the highest sequential reading since August 2024.
- The December reading was also revised up as we had expected, but by even more than we had anticipated to -0.4% M/M (from -1.1% originally and our tracking estimate of between -0.7 to -0.6%). We assume that December Italy data was revised up from its originally weak print of -3.1% M/M to account for the larger revision.
- Note we had assumed January Italy IP prints in-line with consensus at 1.4% M/M for our tracking estimate of between 0.7 to 0.8%. As the EZ was in line with our tracking estimate, this also suggests Italy IP data tomorrow will come in broadly in-line with consensus (albeit with an upward revision to December as noted above).
- We estimate IP excluding Ireland rose between 1.1 to 1.2% M/M.
- Only two of the five subcomponents were higher than the December reading.
- Intermediate goods rose 1.6% M/M recovering most of its decline of 1.7% in December. Whilst capital goods increased 0.5% M/M after deteriorating 1.9% in December.
- Energy and consumer goods recorded declines. Energy production fell 1.2% M/M reversing most of December's 1.5% increase. Non-durable consumer goods production dropped 3.1% M/M, retracing a bit under half of December's 7.2% increase. Durable consumer goods edged down 0.2% M/M after a slight increase of 0.3% in December.
- For more on the country breakdown see our preview bullet (EUROZONE DATA: Industrial Production Tracking 1-2 Tenths Above Consensus, 12 March).
- This reading was encouraging for Eurozone IP but the data continues to appear to be following a broad downtrend since mid-2023. If we were to see a couple more months of similar increases to January, however, this view may be challenged.
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