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IPCA Inflation, Focus Survey & Consumer Confidence

  • The Brazilian real was one of the strongest performers on Monday, mainly due to a supportive broader risk backdrop but also the price action was exacerbated by a deterioration in USDBRL’s technical conditions.
  • The pair slid to fresh yearly lows, dipping below the 4.75 handle for the first time since June 2022. As noted previously, the initial target on the downside is 4.6910, the May 30 2022 low before the 2022 lows residing at 4.5836.
  • Focus turns to today’s inflation data and expectations survey as final evidence before next week’s BCB rate decision where an easing cycle is expected to commence.
    • 1200BST/0700ET: July Brazil FGV Consumer Conf., prior 92.3
    • 1230BST/0730ET: BCB Focus Survey
    • 1300BST/0800ET: July IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/m, est. -0.02%
    • 1300BST/0800ET: July IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 Y/y, est. 3.25%

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