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IPCA Inflation In Focus As USDBRL Eyes Next Leg Lower

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL continues to consolidate just above 5.00 as markets await the latest set of inflation data, both domestically and in the US.
  • Swap rates will react to May IPCA data due 1300BST/0800 ET where annual inflation is expected to have reached 7.93% versus BCB's central target of 3.75% and upper limit of 5.25.
  • If inflation exceeds the estimates, short-end swaps may rise and the Brazilian real may have an extra boost to breach key level. The next COPOM meeting will take place in a weeks time on June 16th where the Central bank are expected to hike by another 75 basis points as part of their 'partial normalisation' process.
  • Officials have been particularly worried with services inflation as the economy fully reopens, as underscored by BCB President Roberto Campos Neto on Tuesday, adding that services will be one of the focuses of the BCB meeting next week. Markets remain eager to see signs the BCB will abandon the phrase "partial normalisation" and continue with their aggressive tightening cycle.
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