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IRELAND: FF-FG Will To Need Partner As Parties Cannot Cross Maj. Threshold

IRELAND
Homepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletCEEMEAEurozoneBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsIreland

The counting of votes continues following the 29 November general election. Ireland's historically dominant parties, Tanaiste (Deputy PM) Micheál Martin's centrist/centre-right Fianna Fáil and Taoiseach (PM) Simon Harris' conservative Fine Gael (FG) have at present a combined seat total of 84, below the 88 required for a majority in the 174-member Dáil. With four seats yet to be declared in the Cavan-Monaghan constituency, there are not enough FG or FF candidates that have not been eliminated as part of that count to cross the 88-seat threshold.  

  • To secure a comfortable majority the parties could seek to work with the centre-left Labour party, which increased its seat total from six to 11. However, before the election Labour raised the prospect of holding talks with the centre-left Social Democrats and environmentalist Greens before talking to FF or FG. This could see the prospect of party leaders demanding all three 'progressive' parties are included in gov't rather than allowing a singular centre-left party to go into coalition.
  • Such a gov't would prove unwieldy with the centre-left parties (notably the Social Democrats) holding different views on fundamental issues such as tax, spending, and housing policy.
  • The other options for FF-FG would be working with the right-wing Independent Ireland (four seats currently) or a number of independents (16 at present).
  • In either case, there is unlikely to be any notable market reaction given the scenario of left-wing Irish republican Sinn Fein joining the gov't has been all-but-eliminated. 
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The counting of votes continues following the 29 November general election. Ireland's historically dominant parties, Tanaiste (Deputy PM) Micheál Martin's centrist/centre-right Fianna Fáil and Taoiseach (PM) Simon Harris' conservative Fine Gael (FG) have at present a combined seat total of 84, below the 88 required for a majority in the 174-member Dáil. With four seats yet to be declared in the Cavan-Monaghan constituency, there are not enough FG or FF candidates that have not been eliminated as part of that count to cross the 88-seat threshold.  

  • To secure a comfortable majority the parties could seek to work with the centre-left Labour party, which increased its seat total from six to 11. However, before the election Labour raised the prospect of holding talks with the centre-left Social Democrats and environmentalist Greens before talking to FF or FG. This could see the prospect of party leaders demanding all three 'progressive' parties are included in gov't rather than allowing a singular centre-left party to go into coalition.
  • Such a gov't would prove unwieldy with the centre-left parties (notably the Social Democrats) holding different views on fundamental issues such as tax, spending, and housing policy.
  • The other options for FF-FG would be working with the right-wing Independent Ireland (four seats currently) or a number of independents (16 at present).
  • In either case, there is unlikely to be any notable market reaction given the scenario of left-wing Irish republican Sinn Fein joining the gov't has been all-but-eliminated.