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IRELAND: Final Results: FF & FG Will Need Partner, Lowest Combined % Share Ever

IRELAND
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The final results of the 29 November general election have been confirmed, with Tánaiste (Deputy PM) Micheál Martin's centre-right Fianna Fáil (FF) remaining the largest party in the Dáil with 48 of the 174 seats. Its main coalition partner, the conservative Fine Gael (FG) of Taoiseach (PM) Simon Harris came third with 38 seats, one behind the left-wing Irish republican Sinn Féin (SF) with 39. Due to the rise in the number of seats in the Dáil from 160 to 174, all three main parties increased their seat totals despite their respective shares of first preference votes declining. Indeed the combined 42.7% share of first-preference votes for FF and FG is the lowest since FG ran under its current banner for the first time in 1937. 

  • With 86 seats, FF and FG - presumed to be set to re-form the coalition both having ruled out working with SF - will need the support of at least one more party or a number of independent lawmakers (TDs) to cross the majority threshold of 88.
  • Coalition talks will now begin in earnest, firstly between FF and FG. The Irish Times reports FG sources claiming 'parity of esteem' as a red line for the party, which could entail a continuation of the rotating Taoiseach agreement and a near-even split in Cabinet. The increased size of the FF cohort relative to FG could enforce some concessions from Harris' party, though.
  • Both Harris and Martin are set to travel to Edinburgh, Scotland on 6 Dec for talks with UK PM Sir Keir Starmer at a meeting of the British-Irish Council. 

Chart 1. 2024 Election Result, Seats in Dáil 

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The final results of the 29 November general election have been confirmed, with Tánaiste (Deputy PM) Micheál Martin's centre-right Fianna Fáil (FF) remaining the largest party in the Dáil with 48 of the 174 seats. Its main coalition partner, the conservative Fine Gael (FG) of Taoiseach (PM) Simon Harris came third with 38 seats, one behind the left-wing Irish republican Sinn Féin (SF) with 39. Due to the rise in the number of seats in the Dáil from 160 to 174, all three main parties increased their seat totals despite their respective shares of first preference votes declining. Indeed the combined 42.7% share of first-preference votes for FF and FG is the lowest since FG ran under its current banner for the first time in 1937. 

  • With 86 seats, FF and FG - presumed to be set to re-form the coalition both having ruled out working with SF - will need the support of at least one more party or a number of independent lawmakers (TDs) to cross the majority threshold of 88.
  • Coalition talks will now begin in earnest, firstly between FF and FG. The Irish Times reports FG sources claiming 'parity of esteem' as a red line for the party, which could entail a continuation of the rotating Taoiseach agreement and a near-even split in Cabinet. The increased size of the FF cohort relative to FG could enforce some concessions from Harris' party, though.
  • Both Harris and Martin are set to travel to Edinburgh, Scotland on 6 Dec for talks with UK PM Sir Keir Starmer at a meeting of the British-Irish Council. 

Chart 1. 2024 Election Result, Seats in Dáil 

Keep reading...Show less