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Irish Bank AT1 vs. Equity

CREDIT RESEARCH

Allied Irish Banks: The Irish government has renewed the share trading plan to reduce its holding further (down to 40.8% now)... interesting to note divergent performances of the some of the Irish AT1 and equity.


  1. AIBG's benchmark AT1 bond has tightened consistently through 4Q23 and now sits at a good premium to similar issues from BIRG and PTSB (see image).
  2. Over similar timescale, the equity has traded precisely the other way with AIB underperforming its two domestic peers (likely on the share overhang issue, as the govt continues to sell down).
  3. Irish state still holds only <10% of BIRG and but still nearly 60% of PTSB. Feels like the cross-asset trade (AIBG equity vs. AT1) is overstretched in the context of its domestic peers.

Irish Bank AT1 OAS movesBloomberg

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