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Irish Growth Masks Stagnant April EZ Industrial Production

EUROZONE DATA
MNI (London)

EUROZONE APR INDUSTRIAL PROD +1.0% M/M (FCST +0.9%); MAR -3.8% M/M

EUROZONE APR INDUSTRIAL PROD +0.2% Y/Y (FCST +0.7%); MAR -1.4% Y/Y

  • Eurozone industrial production expanded by +1.0% m/m in April, marginally stronger than expected and rebounding from the -3.8% m/m March fall. Compared to last year, April production rose a modest +0.2%.
  • April data saw contractions across Italy (-1.9% m/m) and the Netherlands (-3.5% m/m), whilst German production was revised down to flat (vs +0.3% m/m provisional). Of the major EZ economies, only France recorded an uptick (+0.8% m/m), boosted by less industrial action.
  • The giant +21.5% m/m jump in volatile Irish data (following a -27.0% March plunge) will have partly accounted for the stronger headline April print, masking more stagnant outlooks.
  • Capital goods grew +14.7% m/m, energy by +1.0%, whilst intermediates fell -1.0%, durables by -2.6% and non-durables by -3.0% m/m in April.
  • The strong capital goods growth is also overstated due to Irish data volatility, after Irish Chemical, Pharmaceutical and Computer & Electronic sectors recorded +81.3% m/m growth.
  • Cooling energy prices and further easing in supply chains is supporting current production, however the persistent decline in demand is a key concern. This has been flagged by PMI data, which plunged to a three-year low in May, implying growth outlooks appear muted at best.


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