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IRON ORE: Rebounds To $100/Ton, Technicals Still Look Soft

IRON ORE
Metals bulletBulletCommodities

The active iron ore contract is back above $100/ton in the first part of Monday trade (+3.55% for the session). Recent lows rest under $96/ton. The technical set up doesn't look great as we sub all key EMAs and simple MAs. Recent lows were levels last seen in late Sep. 

  • There appears to be some near term optimism for the onshore steel production outlook, amid surging exports. The longevity of this though is under question, as it may reflect front loading ahead of potential Trump administration trade/tariff action in early 2025.
  • Onshore steel prices are higher today, with hot rolled coil up 0.70%, and rebar +0.4%.
  • Iron ore inventories at China ports ticked down last week, but remain close to recent cycle highs. Property stocks are higher today, but the trend hasn't been positive in the last week and a half.
  • Our onshore policy team noted late last week that policy stimulus should help keep prices near $100/ton. Friday's IP and FAI data were a little below expectations. 
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The active iron ore contract is back above $100/ton in the first part of Monday trade (+3.55% for the session). Recent lows rest under $96/ton. The technical set up doesn't look great as we sub all key EMAs and simple MAs. Recent lows were levels last seen in late Sep. 

  • There appears to be some near term optimism for the onshore steel production outlook, amid surging exports. The longevity of this though is under question, as it may reflect front loading ahead of potential Trump administration trade/tariff action in early 2025.
  • Onshore steel prices are higher today, with hot rolled coil up 0.70%, and rebar +0.4%.
  • Iron ore inventories at China ports ticked down last week, but remain close to recent cycle highs. Property stocks are higher today, but the trend hasn't been positive in the last week and a half.
  • Our onshore policy team noted late last week that policy stimulus should help keep prices near $100/ton. Friday's IP and FAI data were a little below expectations.