IRON ORE: Sub $91/Ton, Broader Metal Weakness An Additional Headwind

The active SGX iron ore contract is sub $91/ton, off close 1.80% for the session. This is fresh lows in the active contract back to  August 2023. Lows at that juncture were around the $87.50/ton level. 

• Familiar headwinds look to be in play for iron ore. China property sentiment remains soft. The CSI 300 real estate sub index is bottoming along at lows, with upticks not sustained. Sell-side China growth expectations for GDP this year and next also have downside biases.
• Other metal prices are also softer. The Bloomberg metals sub index has fallen for 5 straight sessions, it sits 5.5% off its late August peak. As we noted yesterday, the Global PMI trend is pointing to softer industrial production/global trade trends. This is likely an iron ore headwind, outside of China concerns.
• Onshore steel prices are also moving lower, steel rebar futures close to CNY 3100. This is near fresh cycle lows.
• Friday focus will rest with onshore inventory levels at China ports.