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Is CZKPLN Set For A ST Consolidation?

CEE FX
  • With political risk premium being now trimmed in Poland following the recent agreement on Turow mine and President Duda’s proposed bill to scrap the ‘disciplinary chamber’ of the Supreme Court, support for the PLN could increase in the medium term.
  • On the other hand, with CNB entering the last phase of the tightening cycle, investors’ interest on CZK could start to decrease in the short term against some major crosses (i.e. Euro) following the strong appreciation of the koruna in the past year.
  • Hence, CZKPLN, which has been constantly reaching new all-time highs in the past year, could retrace sharply lower in the short term.
  • The pair tested its 0.1857 support earlier today (former resistance line); a break below that level would open the door for a move down to 0.1848 (50DMA).
  • Key support stands at 0.1820, which corresponds to the low of its LT upward trending channel.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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