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Is FOMC Unanimity Required To Meet Threshold For Greater Confidence On Inflation?

FED
  • Q: Do you need consensus/unanimity on the FOMC to meet the threshold for greater confidence on inflation?
    • A: We are not really at that stage. There was no proposal to cut rates. Some did talk about their rate path view. I would point the SEP as good evidence of where people are, though it is one month later. We are not at a place of really working out those details, because we weren't actively considering considering moving the rate down. There is a healthy disparity of views, healthy set of differences. We are also able to reach agreement generally.
  • Q: What might be on the dashboard that is giving you the clearest picture of the economy, including on rents?
    • A: It's not the pandemic now, so we can actually rely on more traditional data. People are working, they are getting wages, and the economy is largely reopened and broadly normalizing as you see. I would not say we are looking at that sort of more innovative data as much.
    • We follow the components of inflation very carefully. For housing inflation - the question is when will these lower market rents find their way into measured rents, as measured in PCE inflation. We think that is coming. We know it is coming. It is just a question of when and how big it will be. So, that is in everyone's forecast, I would say. Goods inflation has been giving a lot of disinflation to the effort and probably that declines other time, but it may well have time to run.
    • We are not declaring victory at all at this point (on a soft landing). We think we have a ways to go.
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