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Is Inflation Peaking?

CHINA
  • China PPI inflation surprised positively overnight and rose more than expected by 12.9% YoY in November (vs. 12.1% exp.) but decelerated from the 26-year high of 13.5% reached the previous month.
  • On the other hand, CPI inflation came in below expectations at 2.3% but accelerated from the previous month and is currently standing at its highest level since August 2020.
  • Investors have been questioning recently if inflationary pressures are peaking in China and if PPI inflation is about to gradually decelerate in the coming months.
  • The chart below shows that China liquidity, which has been a strong driver of PPI inflation by 9 months in the past 15 years, suggests that the inflation peak is near and that we should enter into a ‘disinflationary’ period in the next 6 to 12 months.
  • Therefore, a ‘disinflationary’ environment will give the PBoC more room for policy easing in the medium term and could be positive for domestic risky assets.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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