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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
SONIA and Euribor have moved lower almost in unison today, both less than the moves in Eurodollar futures.
- SONIA futures normally move with a higher beta, but today's moves suggest we may be getting to a limit of how much can be priced into the UK curve. A February hike is around 99% priced at present with 4 hikes almost fully priced by the November MPC meeting - which would leave the Bank Rate at 1.25%.
- Note the the Eurodollar curve is also fully pricing four hikes in 2022.
- The Euribor strip is now pricing a 10bp hike almost fully by September and then almost fully pricing a second 10bp hike in December.
- Given that the SONIA and Euribor strips have moved with a similar beta today, we will watch closely their movements in coming days - although this could largely be skewed by UK data with labour market data tomorrow, CPI data Wednesday and consumer confidence/retail sales data Friday.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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