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ISM Manufacturing Misses With Weak Details

  • ISM mfg was softer than expected, falling from 52.8 to 50.9 (cons 52.1) with Friday’s drop in the Chicago PMI better reflecting the softening in activity vs the nudge higher in the S&P Global PMI.
  • Fresh low since May’20 and with weak internals: new orders 47.1 (low since May’20), new orders less inventories continuing to point to further weakness ahead for the overall index and employment unwinding the large jump in August back into contraction territory.
  • Prices of 51.7 confirmed the sizeable decline over the summer from 78.5 in June, close to the 2019 average of 49.1 and below the long-term (2000-19) average of 59.5.
  • The Tsy rally extends even further on the release, led by 5YY down -24bps at typing.

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