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ISM Manufacturing Weaker Than Expected As Prices, New Orders Pull Back

US DATA
  • The ISM manufacturing index was weaker than expected at 48.7 in May (cons 49.6, prior 49.2).
  • The drop in the headline index follows a weak set of regional Fed surveys this month, including last week’s MNI Chicago PMI release.
  • The ISM Manufacturing prices paid component fell 3.9 points to 57.0, below consensus forecasts of 59.5 though still indicative of solid price pressures versus earlier in the year (May's prices paid were 4.1 points above the January level). The release notes that “Commodity prices continue to increase, especially fuel, natural gas, aluminum and plastics. Steel is showing signs of weakness”.
  • Meanwhile, the employment component printed in expansionary territory for the first time since September 2023 at 51.1. For the purposes of this Friday's nonfarm payrolls release, the uptick could spur some upside reconsiderations for existing forecasts., especially after the S&P manufacturing PMI also signalled stronger employment dynamics.
  • New orders fell 3.7 points to 45.4 (vs 49.1 prior), helping the new orders minus inventories metric fall to -2.5 (vs 0.9 prior).

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