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ISM Mfg Misses; Prices Paid Lift A Touch But Employment At 2009 Levels

US DATA
  • ISM manufacturing saw a sizeable miss in July, falling to 46.8 (cons 48.8) from 48.5 in June. It’s the lowest since Nov 2023.
  • Prices paid offer the only beat for a mild offset: 52.9 (cons 51.8) after 52.1, although that’s still only a 0.8pt increase after some particularly large swings. Recall that this series rose 8.4pts between Feb-Apr only to then fall 8.8pts through Apr-Jun.
  • New orders miss: 47.4 (cons 49.0) after 49.3, holding above the particularly weak 45.4 in May but still firmly in contractionary territory. The regional Fed series had painted a particularly mixed picture for new orders but were on balance weaker as well including some at the lowest since the pandemic and 2008/09.
  • Employment sees a very large miss: 43.4 (cons 49.2) after 49.3, the lowest since Jul 2020. Pre-pandemic, that’s the lowest since 2009 although manufacturing does admittedly have a small share of payrolls at about 10%.

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