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CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

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STIR: ISM Services Hit Reversed Ahead Of Payrolls, Fedspeak To Follow

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Fed Funds implied rates are near changed overnight for the next two meetings but after that have lifted as much as 3bps for the Jun’25 to reverse Wednesday’s drop on a weaker ISM services report.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 17.5bp Dec, 24bp Jan, 39bp Mar and 59bp Jun.
  • Today’s Fedspeak is the last scheduled before the FOMC media blackout begins 0000ET Saturday, with all appearances coming post-payrolls.
  • Hammack is probably the pick today as we haven’t much from her since she formally assumed her current voting role in September. However, in the event of an ambiguous payrolls report, Bowman can carry asymmetrical risks if the usually hawkish FOMC member offers support for another 25bp cut this month.
  • As for hawkish implications, we expect Fedspeak will only really come into its own in the event of a much stronger than expected payrolls report. However, CPI would still need to be solid to help firm up support for a Fed pause, which comes in the blackout period and would require less official channels of Fed communication.
  • 0915ET Bowman (permanent voter, hawk) at the Missouri Bankers Association (just Q&A)
  • 1030ET Goolsbee (’25, dove) in fireside chat at economic symposium (just Q&A)
  • 1200ET Hammack (’24) gives speech on economic outlook (text + Q&A)
  • 1300ET Daly (’24) in moderated conversation (just Q&A)
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are near changed overnight for the next two meetings but after that have lifted as much as 3bps for the Jun’25 to reverse Wednesday’s drop on a weaker ISM services report.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 17.5bp Dec, 24bp Jan, 39bp Mar and 59bp Jun.
  • Today’s Fedspeak is the last scheduled before the FOMC media blackout begins 0000ET Saturday, with all appearances coming post-payrolls.
  • Hammack is probably the pick today as we haven’t much from her since she formally assumed her current voting role in September. However, in the event of an ambiguous payrolls report, Bowman can carry asymmetrical risks if the usually hawkish FOMC member offers support for another 25bp cut this month.
  • As for hawkish implications, we expect Fedspeak will only really come into its own in the event of a much stronger than expected payrolls report. However, CPI would still need to be solid to help firm up support for a Fed pause, which comes in the blackout period and would require less official channels of Fed communication.
  • 0915ET Bowman (permanent voter, hawk) at the Missouri Bankers Association (just Q&A)
  • 1030ET Goolsbee (’25, dove) in fireside chat at economic symposium (just Q&A)
  • 1200ET Hammack (’24) gives speech on economic outlook (text + Q&A)
  • 1300ET Daly (’24) in moderated conversation (just Q&A)