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ISRAEL: Airstrikes On S. Lebanon Continue But No Further Sign Of Escalation Yet

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Israeli airstrikes and shelling against targets in southern Lebanon appear to be continuing amid heightened tensions along the frontier between the two countries. Hezbollah has also fired at least 130 rockets at Israeli targets in the past hour, with some intercepted by the Iron Dome. The likelihood of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah has increased following the detonation of electronic devices used by Hezbollah operatives and air strikes against up to 30 rocket launcher sites in Lebanon overnight. 

  • As has been the case since the 7 October attacks on Israel by Hamas that sparked an uptick in the exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah along the border, it is all but impossible to determine what the eventual catalyst would be for an outbreak of conflict that truly rattles market sentiment.
  • Speaking on 19 September, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that the pager attacks 'crossed red lines' and were an 'effective declaration of war'. However, he also acknowledged the scale of the blow delivered against Hezbollah by the attack. The ability of Hezbollah to mount retaliatory attacks is severely limited, and it will take some time for it to regroup. The more pressing trigger for wider conflict would be a broader Israeli assault into Lebanon, with the aim of achieving one of the 'war goals' of PM Benjamin Netanyahu's gov't, securing the ability of displaced Israelis in the north to return home. 
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Israeli airstrikes and shelling against targets in southern Lebanon appear to be continuing amid heightened tensions along the frontier between the two countries. Hezbollah has also fired at least 130 rockets at Israeli targets in the past hour, with some intercepted by the Iron Dome. The likelihood of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah has increased following the detonation of electronic devices used by Hezbollah operatives and air strikes against up to 30 rocket launcher sites in Lebanon overnight. 

  • As has been the case since the 7 October attacks on Israel by Hamas that sparked an uptick in the exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah along the border, it is all but impossible to determine what the eventual catalyst would be for an outbreak of conflict that truly rattles market sentiment.
  • Speaking on 19 September, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that the pager attacks 'crossed red lines' and were an 'effective declaration of war'. However, he also acknowledged the scale of the blow delivered against Hezbollah by the attack. The ability of Hezbollah to mount retaliatory attacks is severely limited, and it will take some time for it to regroup. The more pressing trigger for wider conflict would be a broader Israeli assault into Lebanon, with the aim of achieving one of the 'war goals' of PM Benjamin Netanyahu's gov't, securing the ability of displaced Israelis in the north to return home.