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ISRAEL: Hezbollah Launches Rocket Strikes With Little Sign Of De-Escalation

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Following the deadliest day in cross-border attacks in nearly 20 years, this morning has seen over 65 rockets launched by Hezbollah towards targets in northern Israel. According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least 492 individuals were killed and 1,645 wounded in Israeli airstrikes that come as part of a major effort by Israeli forces to degrade Hezbollah as a fighting entity. 

  • Global focus is now turned squarely towards Israel and Lebanon amid the prospect of a wider escalation. Iran's response will be closely watched. Speaking on the evening of 23 Sep, Iranian President Masoud Pezseshkian said that Israel is laying 'traps' for Iran in attacking Hezbollah so forcefully, adding “They are dragging us to a point where we do not wish to go, There is no winner in warfare. We are only fooling ourselves”
  • As MNI noted on 23 Sep (see 'SECURITY: US To Send Additional Troops To Region Amid Israel/Hezb'h Escalation' 1722BST), the 'decapitation' strategy that Israel seems to be implementing against Hezbollah (targeting senior commanders to damage the organisational structure) has so far knocked out a significant level of Hezbollah leadership.
  • This is not to say that Hezbollah is on the verge of a defeat. The organisation is much larger in scope than Hamas in Gaza, with up to 20k active personnel and this amount again in reservists. Despite Israel's bombardments, Hezbollah's military arsenal is far more extensive than Hamas' ever was. As such, should a full conflict break out it is unlikely to prove short-term in nature. 
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Following the deadliest day in cross-border attacks in nearly 20 years, this morning has seen over 65 rockets launched by Hezbollah towards targets in northern Israel. According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least 492 individuals were killed and 1,645 wounded in Israeli airstrikes that come as part of a major effort by Israeli forces to degrade Hezbollah as a fighting entity. 

  • Global focus is now turned squarely towards Israel and Lebanon amid the prospect of a wider escalation. Iran's response will be closely watched. Speaking on the evening of 23 Sep, Iranian President Masoud Pezseshkian said that Israel is laying 'traps' for Iran in attacking Hezbollah so forcefully, adding “They are dragging us to a point where we do not wish to go, There is no winner in warfare. We are only fooling ourselves”
  • As MNI noted on 23 Sep (see 'SECURITY: US To Send Additional Troops To Region Amid Israel/Hezb'h Escalation' 1722BST), the 'decapitation' strategy that Israel seems to be implementing against Hezbollah (targeting senior commanders to damage the organisational structure) has so far knocked out a significant level of Hezbollah leadership.
  • This is not to say that Hezbollah is on the verge of a defeat. The organisation is much larger in scope than Hamas in Gaza, with up to 20k active personnel and this amount again in reservists. Despite Israel's bombardments, Hezbollah's military arsenal is far more extensive than Hamas' ever was. As such, should a full conflict break out it is unlikely to prove short-term in nature.