Israel May Face Difficulties to Meet Gas Export Obligations

Israel may face difficulties to meet its natural gas export obligations in full due to the closure of the 10bcm/yr Tamar gas field and the EMG pipeline, even if output from the Karish field will be increased according to Argus Media

• The Karish field started production in late 2022 and has since then steadily increased output so far this year. The field is currently running on an annualized production rate of 6bcm/yr according to operator Energean.
• In April this year, the firm started deliveries under long-term contracts with a number of Israeli customers, most of which previously bought gas from the Leviathan field, Energean said. This enabled a greater share of Leviathan output to be exported to Egypt.
• Israeli gas contracts include a clause that allows producers, if the government requests it, to divert supplies to the country's strategic needs without having to compensate buyers for the shortfall. It is unclear whether any such request has been made so far, but after production from Tamar was shut on 9 October, a greater share of Leviathan output may be needed to meet domestic demand.
• Argus estimates showed that if Israel's consumption is in line with a year earlier and Jordan's receipts also hold stable, Israel would be able to send only about 2.6bcm/yr to Egypt as long as Tamar remains shut — about 3.7bcm/yr less than in 2022.