Istanbul, Ankara Mayors Eyed as 2023 Opposition Candidates, Analysts Boost Bearish Lira Bets

LOCAL NEWS

• Standard Chartered sees the lira falling to 20 vs the USD by year end, given the low chance of a shift to more orthodox policies ahead of elections. Says it believes inflation will remain high and the CBRT will continue cutting rates.
  • Notes the recent FX-deposit scheme has not led to de-dollarization as hoped, and it worsens government fiscal risks
• Majority of opposition mayors agree Ankara Mayor Yavas or Istanbul mayor Imamoglu (both CHP) should be the presidential candidates for the Nation alliance to run against the AKP+MHP coalition (People’s Alliance) in 2023.
  • IYI leader Aksener says Turkey can return Turkey to the Parliamentary system without breaking it
• In recent days, there has been a relaxation in revolving commercial loan interest rates that previously exceeded 40%. Banking sources say rates fell to about 20%-24% largely due to the closing of the year-end balance sheet period
• CHP leader Kilcdaroglu promises to send 3.7m Syrian migrants home “willingly” over a two year period if the opposition alliance took power in 2023.
  • Growing anti-Syrian sentiment has been brewing in Turkey and part of the reason for Erdogan’s falling approval ratings. 98.5% of Turkey’s Syrian population lives outside of camps in cities/towns that were already facing issues before their arrival

Data:

• 1130GMT: Nov House Price Index y/y, 20.003% prior
• 1130GMT: Nov House Price Index m/m, 5.53% prior