Italian Front-Month Leads Losses on Energy Complex, Firm Rainfall

The Italian front month is leading losses compared to the German and French equivalents to shrug off potential gains due to the possibility of higher cooling demand and instead weighed on by losses in the energy complex and above-average rainfall.

• Italy Base Power AUG 24 down 2.2% at 97.4 EUR/MWh
• France Base Power AUG 24 down 1.5% at 42.05 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 1% at 71.7 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.9% at 68.37 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 2% at 31.65 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal AUG 24 down 2.1% at 103.8 USD/MT
• Italy has a daily average of 10 cooling degree days for the 1-5 day forecast, according to WSI, 3C above the 10-year norm, according to Bbg.
• In Rome, average temperatures are forecast to rise as high as 29C on 14 July- some 4C above the 30-year norm.
• Hot temperatures are also evident in Madrid, Spain, averaging a high of 33C on 18 July – compared to the 30-year norm of 26C – with maximum temperatures at 42C on the same day, ECMWF shows.
• But Italian hydro stocks narrowed the deficit to the same week last year in week 26 and flipped to surplus to the 5-year average for the first time since week 15, Entso-E data showed.
• And weather forecasts for Torino – close to Italy’s hydro-intensive region – is expected to be above the seasonal average of about 0.8mm over 10-13 July – reaching as high as 12mm on 12 July, ECMWF forecast show. This could support hydro stocks and reduce supply risks.