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Italy 10y BTP preview

EGB SYNDICATION
  • Italy announced a mandate for a new 10-year BTP maturing 1 December 2031 yesterday, with the transaction to take place in the "near future". We expect it today.
  • We look for a transaction size at the lower end of a E10-14bln range. The last 10-year BTP syndication in February saw E10bln sold as part of a dual-tranche transaction alongside the 30-year BTPei (for E4bln). The last single tranche 10-year syndication was in June 2020 where E14bln was sold. That was at the height of the first wave of Covid-19, however, so funding funding needs were exacerbated.
  • We expect demand to be strong with books of E68.5bln for the February 10-year syndication. The transaction saw final spreads set at 0.90% Apr-31 BTP+4bp, down from IPT of BTP+8bp.
  • In terms of timing, we use the April dual tranche as a template: guidance was given at 8:20, an update around 10:30, spreads were set just before 11:15 with the transaction launched just after 12:45 and priced at 15:40. All times are UK.
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