January 07, 2025 10:49 GMT
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Italy Flash HICP Misses, Softest Services Since Apr 2022
EUROPEAN INFLATION
Italian December flash HICP was 1.4% Y/Y, two tenths below consensus and down from 1.5% in November. The lower-than-expected print combined with Franch undershooting estimates was a large reason for the Eurozone-wide inflation print tilting back in line with consensus at 2.4% Y/Y after upside risks from the German and Spanish data that had already been released (yesterday and Dec 30 respectively).
The decrease in Italian headline HICP reflected Y/Y moderation in most of the main sub-components:
- Services slowed to 2.9% Y/Y from 3.2% in Nov, ending the year with a notable moderation having stabilised between 3.1-3.4% Y/Y through Jan-Nov 2024. It should however still be viewed against pre-pandemic averages close to 1.0%.
- Non-energy industrial goods (core goods) were estimated to be flat on an annual basis in December after 0.4% Y/Y in Nov.
- Food, alcohol, and tobacco HICP slowed to 2.4% Y/Y from 2.8% in November.
- Energy deflation meanwhile continued but to less extent, with -2.9% Y/Y after -5.4% Y/Y in Nov, helping limit the decline seen in headline HICP inflation compared to November's Y/Y.
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