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ITALY WILL AUCTION E5.25-6.75bn OF BTPs ON THURSDAY

ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW

Italy will come to market on Thursday for a tap of E5.25-6.75bn target. On offer are the 0.30% Aug-23 BTP, 0.95% Sep-27 BTP and the 2.45% Sep-50 BTP.

  • BACKGROUND: Previous auction results (date, volume, average yield, bid-to-cover): 0.30% Aug-23 BTP (14 Jul 2020, E3.5bn, 0.30%, 1.57x), 0.95% Sep-27 BTP (14 Jul 2020, E4.5bn, 0.95%, 1.38x), 2.45% Sep-50 BTP (21 Apr 2020, E6bn, 3.13%..synd ).
  • RV/HISTORY: BTPs have broadly rallied since the beginning of May and the curve has bull flattened, with little sign of a trend change. The ECB's disproportionate buying of BTPs through the PEPP, coupled with the agreement on an EU recovery fund (with Italy being one of the main beneficiaries), has contributed to a narrowing of spreads over core EGBs. The 10-year BTP-Bund spread has traded down over 100bps since the beginning of May to 140bp. Demand has been robust in recent BTP auctions and despite possible seasonality effects this month, we expect strong appetite at Thursday's auction.
  • TIMING: Results are due out shorty after the auction closes at 1000BST.
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